Hello everyone
I have been looking at a different way of using B/L 75% because there are a couple of scenarios in the current version I am not happy with. In short, I want more, for instance:
If a horse drifts and wins, I want to win because I have picked the winner (not unreasonable, I think).
If a horse is backed off the boards but loses, I want to win because I have beaten the market.
The new variation means that both of those scenarios will make money. It doesn’t come for free though (does anything?) because, in order to achieve this, some of the winnings when a horse is backed in and wins have to be sacrificed. However the second aspect of this variation that appeals to me is the absolute rock bottom risk factor involved such that, in my opinion, a 50 point operating back is more than sufficient. The original version of Back/Lay 75%, if used on its own requires an 80 point bank. The third aspect that appeals is that, I feel, anyone will be able to get results much closer to mine than some are able to at the moment.
So how does it work, let’s take an example and compare it to the current version.
Currently we back a horse, let’s say at £10 at, for example, odds of 13.0 (12/1).
We will then lay that horse 5 seconds before the off for £7.50.
Under the new variation the back procedure is exactly the same:
£10 backed at 12/1 – potential win £120.00
We then take 75% of that potential win (£90) and place a liability bet for that amount at BSP. That means if the horse wins at whatever odds we will make a minimum of £30 (£120-£90).
It is important to place these bets with BOG bookies in case it drifts and wins, because if it drifted a couple of points the payout on the win would be £140 whilst our liability is fixed at £90 thus increasing the profit to £50.
If it drifts out and loses, our lay stake is smaller and so therefore our loss is greater than ¼ of a point (to a maximum of about ¾ of a point I estimate, if it drifts enormously).
However if it is backed heavily and loses, for instance, starting at 12/1 but going off at 4/1, we can gain there:
£10 backed at 12/1 – potential win £120.00
Liability £90 at 4/1, lay stake £22.50 means that if it loses we still make £12.50 (£22.50 – £10) less BF commission. Thus a current losing situation is turned around into a winning one.
For the month of March (which has been, in my opinion, a poor month for results) this has achieved 34.88 points (on a 50 point bank, that’s almost 70% return) so in my opinion this does have some merit. I intend for the next three months to split my lay bet between both variations to cover as many possibilities as I can. In March that has resulted in 21 winning days out of 30.
I hope this explains it fully but any questions, as usual, don’t hesitate.