Grey Horse Bot Guide to laying horses
I opened an account in another name and this account was also closed within a couple of days despite my having lost 75% of the funds I had paid in! It made me wonder if they were specifically looking for your clients as there is no way they would have closed that account based on the betting pattern – I was a total loser!
Good morning, A.
Thanks for your email.
I understand how you feel and how frustrating it is that these multi billion pound enterprises are running scared of your £13 bets (it’s laughable!).
It sounds to me as though Boylesports recognised your computer in some way either through the IP address or a cookie placed earlier by them. I always make sure cookies are deleted every time I log out of my browser and I thought that was probably enough. However I have been told recently that it may not be. See email below.
Hi Paul,
Have a read here
Cheers
Glen.
Hope this helps (even a little!).
Regards
Paul
What would you recommend as a starting figure. Do you think £300 or maybe less would be sufficient?
Answer
To answer your question, if you are prepared to look at this long term (the only way to do it, by the way) then, as far as I am concerned, the amount you start with is pretty much irrelevant. People have started with less than you would think (see the last entry on the testimonials page to illustrate this). This, however is a bank based system with the discipline that goes with that.
What is important is that you start with an amount of money you can comfortably commit to (in other words regard it as already spent and have no emotional attachment to it). This is where people go wrong, they do not have an 80 point bank they just kid themselves that they do. They are not prepared to lose it, only part of it (sometimes only 10-20% of it). I know this may sound strange inasmuch as you must be prepared to lose your bank, but, in truth, the only way to make money in any form of gambling is to be prepared to lose.
Also, and I’m sure you don’t need me to spell this out but I will, with a small bank of £100 – £200 in the early months it is highly likely that the profit made will not cover subscriptions so you will be in a loss position. It is necessary therefore again to take a long term view in that you will be investing a certain amount of your own money with the realistic expectation that 8 to 12 months doing this will provide you with a very acceptable second income. Again if you are not able to take this view, then I must, in all honesty, tell you to hang on to your money. I know I can sound a little downbeat about it all, but I’m not, I just like to lay it all out up front.
You see, though I accept this may be difficult to believe, I’m not in the business of selling this to anyone, I’m much more interested in deterring people who seem to reside on a different planet to this one because they waste their own time and (more importantly) they waste mine. You, I must say, do not sound like one of these people but, when you have dealt with the sheer number of emails that I have, it becomes very easy to believe that no-one out there actually understands how the world works.
Let’s look at scenarios for a £300 bank. Based on 80 points that is a back stake of £3.75 with a lay stake of £2.81.
As you probably know my target for everyone is 30% per month growth. This compounded each month would produce a bank slightly over double the starting amount in 3 months (about £650). I have done better than this but I do not alter my view that an average 30% growth is achievable whereas more than that is just a bonus. I do my best to be conservative because I think that’s good enough without the need to raise expectations above that. If you take into account that 3 months subscription plus subscription to a bot will just about equal the profit, then you are more or less level in terms of cash for that first 3 months. However what you have done is laid the foundation for increased growth in terms of money over the next 3 months because the same compounding will take a £650 bank to about £1,400 in the next quarter and up to around £3,000 after 9 months. It is important for bank growth to treat subs as a separate expense in order to let the bank grow as it should. As long as your bank is increasing then you know you are on the right side. At the 9 month stage growth essentially becomes redundant and it is at that time that you look at the bank to provide an income.
I am also, as you probably know, trialling a new version of back/lay 75% which only requires a 50 point bank. I am actually at the moment splitting my lay stake between the two (also with a 50 point bank) and have been doing so with very encouraging results since the beginning of March. It may well be that after a month or two I would advise you to adopt this method which will grow the bank faster if all indications prove to be true. In fact what I do with people new to this is look at the position at the end of each month and decide on the following month’s strategy. The old stagers can look after themselves, they don’t need my input, so it leaves me free to do this.
The bottom line is this: You need to commit your bank and you need to realistically look to be doing this without much actual reward for 3 months in the knowledge that profits will only become obvious in the second and third 3 months. This is what you have to be honest with yourself about and you have to decide whether this is good enough for you. I will give you any help you need, unreservedly, by email, telephone, remotely setting up the software on your computer if required etc. etc.
Well I again got very very close to your points tally, so once more I’m pleased. I was still paper trading today but did it by the book, including pausing appropriately each time I had to go to a bookie site to ‘place a bet’. You may well consider me to be an idiot to test to this degree but I won’t bore you with how many (countless) times I have bought into something that didn’t then work out.
Answer
I would like to make the point very strongly that I consider you far from an idiot with the approach you have. The ones I worry about are the reckless who dive in straight away with £50 bets, operating in a state of barely controlled panic because of the amounts involved. As a result they make far more than their fair share of mistakes, inevitably lose a few quid and comprehensively frighten themselves off the whole thing. That is not the object of this exercise at all, this is not get rich quick and never will be. The common denominator that runs through the people who have been very successful at this is that they have always kept well inside their comfort zone and when impatience has occasionally reared its ugly head, gave it a good slap.
I have just watched with great enjoyment your latest video offering which led me to the testimonial you referred to. I find myself echoing PM’s comments completely – in particular the request for a ‘idot guide’ for the new laying combination. Try as I have, I just cannot get my head round it.
Answer
Right, here we go, this is what I do, I think it’ll probably be easier to understand using an example. My stakes are £50 but for the example I’ll use £10 because it’s simpler.
The bet is £10 but you have to think of it as 2 £5 back bets. Most of the time you will probably place the whole of the £10 with one bookie but sometimes you may decide to split it.
The first £5 bet is placed with a bookie offering the best price.
The second £5 bet is placed with a best odds guaranteed bookie offering the best price. (as I said this will often be the same bookie anyway).
Let’s say a horse is 10/1 (11.0) in the morning
I would place my first £5 as a back bet
I would then lay the horse for a stake of £3.75 (75% of my first £5 back bet) using TBE or an alternative 5 seconds before the off.
I would then lay the horse at BSP for a liability of £37.50 (75% of potential winnings of £50 from my second £5 back bet). This bet I place with Betfair itself just entering the liability amount and telling BF I want Betfair SP (Alistair is working on incorporating this into TBE at the moment). This bet can be placed with BF anytime up to the off, or hours earlier, it doesn’t make any difference.
My first £5 bet would be with whoever is offering the best early price but my second £5 bet is always placed at best odds guaranteed to catch drifters.
Your service has done very well, Paul but I would like to know if people drop out and why?
Answer
Yes, people have dropped out of my service for a variety of reasons, many of which I completely understand. The one reason that I do have trouble with (even though I can understand it a little) is impatience, alongside its twin brother, greed. Patience, even though always held up to be a virtue, is I am afraid in short supply in this modern world of ours where immediate gratification is not only expected, it’s demanded. As a result of this I know many people do not take the safe route I recommend, preferring to back the selections only, they then use stakes they are not comfortable with and imagine they have a 200 point bank when nothing could be further from the truth.
Of the hundreds and hundreds of emails I have received this is my favourite (and I suspect it always will be).
“A little note of appreciation is in order. A happy New Year to you and your family, wishing you all good health and prosperity for 2012. I started out at the beginning of October (missed most of the intro 30 days) with £100 bank and betting £1 backs and 75p Lays. Today the Bank stands at £465 as yesterday I started £4 and £3 stakes. Thank you.”
He, I have to say, is my sort of subscriber, started off “risking” 25p and now he’s “risking“ £1, never obviously concerned about winning days and losing days because the amounts are so comfortable. My reply was to the effect that, at the same rate of growth, his bank by the end of this year would be in the region of £184,000. Of course it won’t be because, as I said to him, he won’t get bets on at that amount, but I hope you see what I mean. It’s not a sprint and impatience as regards any form of gambling is almost always fatal whilst patience does bring rewards.
On reading your testimonials I see that there are two people who do only back bets, would you kindly advise what a suggested bank should be for that.
Answer:
I do have some subscribers who back only, it is true (I don’t like it, but there it is) However the majority of those used the much safer back/lay 75% method for 3 months or so and then having gained confidence over placing something like 3,000 – 4,000 bets changed over to the riskier back only approach. If you start off backing only, which I do not recommend for obvious reasons, then a poor period at the start can easily be the deciding factor to an individual as to whether this system works or not. I, having backed only for 9/10 months, have only used the back/lay75% for the past 6 months because I know how safe it is and how a poor period is of no real concern because the losses are so small. This is why I emphasise that this is the way to be relaxed and comfortable about the amounts you are risking when doing this.
As I said I backed only for some time using a 200 point bank (the absolute minimum in my opinion). My worst period involved a loss of 120 points (pretty close to the wind, and fortunate that it was only winnings I was giving back). The worst actual losing period on back/lay 75% with an 80 point bank was 17 points or thereabouts (a lot more comfortable and well within most people’s emotional limits whilst 120 points isn’t).
Secondly if building up a starting bank of, say £200
(a) If it makes 50 points in the first month backing only that’s £50 (at £1 stakes, 200 point bank) the bank now stands at £250.
(b) If however back/lay 75% makes 30 points that’s £75 (at £2.50 stakes, 80 point bank) the bank now stands at £275.00
In example (a) the bank stands at £2,384 after 7 months of the same
In example (b) the bank stands at £4,646 after 7 months of the same
I came up with back/lay 75% because, in the beginning, I just wanted a safety mechanism to combat the large swings one way or the other backing only which unsettle a lot of people (including me at times). My view on gambling has always been the same, winning is great, but the single most important aspect is to restrict losses when things go against you, because it’s the short term losses that can make you give up on what would ultimately prove to be long term profit.
How much money do I need to operate this?
Answer
Good question, because you need more than is in your bank which is the 50/80 points at risk. When you do this constantly you will find your money is all over the place in bookie accounts and Betfair.
I normally deposit sufficient for 10 bets with each bookmaker plus the bank amount with Betfair. I withdraw from each bookie whatever is over and above sufficient for 20 bets (it saves me having to continually spend time topping up) My bank is £4,000 so I have that amount in Betfair and up to £12,000 with the bookies so about 4 times the bank is needed to run this efficiently. This is not putting any extra money at risk it is simply oiling the wheels.
Paul
I have been using your service for 3 months winning a nice amount and I have a problem. Certain bookies are now restricting my bets. How do you get around this.
Answer
This is the eternal problem if you are successful gambling, there’s no doubt about it.
What can I say? Well, lets put it this way, I have not been able to place a bet in my own name since 2005 but I’m still here making a very good income from it. The truth is there is no easy way around it, I just pay other people a percentage of the winnings to “bet on their behalf”. This costs me about £6,000 per year and it is hassle, I agree but doing it enables me to earn over £50,000 per year. Does it annoy me having to do that – answer Yes it does. If I was able to place bets in the amounts I want I would be a millionaire many times over but I’m not because I can’t. Do I go to bed at night constantly thinking about this? – Answer No I don’t because I accept that the only world I can live in is this one and that’s the reality.
It seems to me that you can look at this in two ways; firstly as an impossible problem to overcome or secondly, as I do, as an extra expense and a little more work.
Question (7/10/11)
How do you get better than bookie SP and how does that translate into money
How do you get better than Betfair SP and how does that translate into money
Answer
As I have said before bookies make money one way, and one way only, that is overround. That represents the inbuilt profit they have on every race by virtue of the fact that they determine the price at which horses can be backed. It is normally in the region of 8% to 12% per race.
If the bookies have worked in a 10% overround into their starting prices, and I can back my horses at 20% better than starting price then instead of them having the 10%, I have it.
Let’s take a perfect example from yesterday, it was Worcester 15:00, a six runner race. At starting prices, what amount of money would you need to place on each horse in order to receive from the bookies £100 whichever horse won. These are the amounts:
Captain Dash @ 6.5 £15.38
The Grey One @ 3.5 £28.57
Chillberry Hill @ 5.0 £20.00
Nono Le Sage @ 17.0 £ 5.88
Coach Lane @ 4.00 £25.00
Western Pride @ 8.0 £12.50
Total stake £107.33
The £7.33 represents the bookie’s built in profit on the race (overround). I had already backed two horses in the race (they came in 5th and 6th, donkeys!), so theoretically if I had then backed the other four horses at SP what would I need to stake to guarantee a return of £100
Captain Dash @ 6.5 £15.38
The Grey One @ 3.5 £28.57
Chillberry Hill @ 5.0 £20.00
Nono Le Sage @ 17.0 £ 5.88
Coach Lane @ 6.00 £16.66
Western Pride @ 13.0 £ 7.69
Total stake £94.18
As you can see the overround is now in my favour. It was not necessary for me to back the other four horses in the race because the fact that I had reversed the overround significantly on the two horses that I did back is the same guarantee of long-term profit that the bookies rely on.
On now to Betfair SP
People who have studied such things for years (not I, I hasten to add) have come to the conclusion that Betfair starting price (not bookie SP) represents the true mathematical chance of a horse winning the race. In other words if you backed a million horses at Betfair starting price you would theoretically break even (less commission, I think). On that basis if you back those horses at 5-10% better than Betfair starting price, with no commission involved because you are backing with bookmakers, you would of course make a profit. Again I do better than Betfair SP by taking early prices on certain horses. .
My own experience does bear this out because obviously the paragraph above is just theory and an enormous number of bets need to be placed to validate that theory. It is exactly one year today since I started backing these horses. In that time I have backed approximately 18,000 of them and I have staked not far off £1 million overall. My profit over that period is over £50,000, representing about 6% profit which ties in nicely with the mathematical view of Betfair starting price.
Question
Does the backing method work by just using betfair?
Answer:
As you know, on the homepage I have described exactly what I do. Everything I say there I can verify because it’s based upon personal experience. With that in mind the answer to your first question is simply, I don’t know, I have no personal experience in that area because I use bookmakers. The only betfair price I log is the lay price five seconds before the off. You may well be able to make a profit using Betfair, and I hope that you do, but it will not be the way that I do it.
Question
I do not have the time or inclination to open accounts and deal with all of the bookies, will this still make money?
Answer:
The truth is I extract the last drop of juice (profit) from what I do because that is the way I am. It does mean having an account with all of the bookmakers and it does mean that quite a lot of my money is floating about in cyberspace much of the time.
I also accept that most people aren’t as driven as I am and it may be a little more difficult for them because things get in the way. That’s why I’ve set the target at 30% (24 points). I expect to make a lot more than that, I’m 37 points up already in the first five days of September. If you want to open accounts with just a few bookies I suggest you concentrate on the best odds guaranteed ones. You don’t have to trawl through the bookies though just go to an odds comparison site, the one I use is Easyodds.com, and place the bets directly from the site.
Question
Could you send me your past results?
Answer:
All my past results are on the results page.
Question
What do I do when bookies start to close my accounts or limit them because I’m winning.
Answer
Although this question has nothing to do with the service I am offering, I will give an answer (sort of).
I have had over 120 separate bookmakers accounts closed over the past 8 years but I’m still betting with them. Why is that? – simple, because I’m determined to keep on betting, that’s all. How I do that, with respect, is my business, but it’s not rocket science.
Personally I would not worry about bookmakers closing my account until bookmakers are closing my accounts. If it’s any consoloation that is a problem 99% of gamblers would love to have (they know bookies will never close their accounts). If you are determined to carry on you will find a way of getting around it, if you are not, you won’t but it will have been good while it lasted.
Question
One thing concerns me about the bank. As you are not backing on Betfair (if I understand it right) you will have to cover full liability in the bank on lay bets.
Is 80 going to be enough. I can see it will be if you do back bets on Betfair as it will net liability off
Answer
Thank you very much for your e-mail and your question which is a very good one.
My answer is this.
The view I take, and I appreciate it may not be shared by everyone, is this:
I see one amount of money as the bank (which is the money “at risk”) but I also have an amount of money that I consider to be in use, but not at risk. I have always operated like that because many times I have actually placed more bets than there are units in the bank. However, as I have not been risking the total amount of the bet, as far as I’m concerned, I have always been working within the constraints of the bank, even though I am temporarily using more money than there is in the bank. With the back/lay 75% method, even placing 80 bets I only regard about 23 points as being at risk.
There is another reason I often need more money than that which is actually in the bank. That occurs when I have had a good winning run from the bookies but I’ve had to pay out on Betfair. When I have to top the Betfair account up, the money is required immediately but I may well be waiting for money from the bookmakers. In truth at the moment I place my bets at £50, so my “bank” is £4,000 but I always have over £10,000 in bookie and Betfair accounts.
You see, from a risk perspective the bank does not need to be greater than 80 points.
So, in summary, an 80 point bank is generously adequate as far as the “at risk” element is concerned but, “in order to keep the wheels oiled” it may be necessary to draft in more money for temporary use.
That’s how I look at it, anyway, hope it helps.
Question
With the new lay side of the bet do you need bet placement software running all day or can you just instruct Betfair to place bets at starting SP.
Thanks
Answer:
You cannot sadly place a lay stake bet at BSP (only a liability bet) so you do need a bot to automate that placement a few seconds before the race starts.
Question
There is just one thing that I noticed, that on occasions there were some rather high odds to lay. If one of those had won, then profits would have been hammered. I know that placing the bets at BOG bookies would have helped, but nowhere near the lay price.
Answer:
Aha, the “nightmare scenario” question.
I admit that this can happen (albeit very rarely, thank the Lord). I don’t know the horses you are referring to but the highest odds I laid at yesterday were 29.0 on Indian Dumani. SP was 16/1 (17.0), a difference of 12 points. If that horse had had the temerity to win, on the back/lay 75% method it would have stung us for five points. Annoying, but not the end of the world and those sort of losses which, as I said happen so infrequently, we would easily absorb into the overall profit. In August my points profit was 89 points so, from my point of view, that could have happened 13 times in the month (it actually never happened once) and I would still be on the required 24 points profit.
I have done my best obviously to reduce the risk element, but we are still gambling so it’s impossible to remove it all.
Question
My query is basically could I set this up first thing in the morning before work or is it something I need to do during the day?
Answer:
The sequence of events during the day is this:
The first batch of selections you will receive between 11:00 and 11:30 – you back them immediately.
You will receive follow up selections (one or two batches) up until about 1:15 – back those as soon as you receive them.
With all the horses now known, you can set the bot up to lay them a few seconds before the off.
Hope this helps.
Earlier questions on the original back only method.
Question:
How do you feel when two or three of your high price selections are beaten into second or third making a big difference to your day. I see this happening a lot, does it disappoint you?
Answer: (30/6/2011)
Thank you very much for your question and I’m really going to enjoy answering this one because it goes to the very heart of what I’m doing, or at least trying to do. We’ve all had a good 8 days and I know some people out there have made 70+ points compared to my 100 or so. My view is that we did not deserve this, and statistically this will not continue to happen. How’s that for a bit of hype (sorry did I get that wrong!). I would even go as far as to say that part of me is quite disappointed in the last eight days (I am a complex individual) because it could possibly give an entirely false initial impression to those people who are impressionable.
When I do my daily Pilates in front of the Racing Post pages I am not looking for winners (he says with a perfectly straight face). I am not even looking for the best horse in the race. All I’m looking for is a horse that will run above itself (or at least above the odds quoted on it). When a 12/1 shot I have backed gets mugged on the line, after having been bet in running at 1.01 (it has happened more than once), I don’t obviously jump up with joy but I have been known to nod quietly to myself and say “mission accomplished”. When a horse I backed at 14/1, is backed down to 7/2 and is beaten into second I may nod twice to myself because:
a) The market has proved that I was right to back this horse at high odds and,
b) The horse proved I was right to back it at high odds
All I am ever looking for is an edge, value, call it what you wish. I believe, in the long-term, having an edge is the only way to succeed in gambling.
A good few years ago I read about a survey of two American horses. I can’t for the life of me remember the name of the participants but the survey showed something very interesting.
Horse A was a top class animal, won plenty of races and earned in the region of $4.8 million prize money.
Horse B was a high-class individual, often racing against Horse A, but never managing to beat it.
In terms of prize money, Horse B won $300,000. This represented 1/16th of the prize money Horse A had managed to win.
Question: Was Horse A 16 times better than Horse B?
Answer: Of course not.
In fact speed and time analyses showed that Horse A was actually 3% faster than Horse B. Horse A had a 3% edge and, as a result, was, to his owners, 16 times more valuable than Horse B. That small edge, or margin, made an enormous amount of difference to the outcome.
I hope you see what I’m getting at because, in the long term, that small edge is all I want.
Question
I‘ll be using £10 stakes, is it prudent to compound the bank?
Answer
There’s nothing imprudent, in my opinion, in compounding the bank provided you only use a maximum 0.5% (1/200th) on each bet. What, in my opinion, is the most imprudent thing to do is convince yourself that you are happy to risk £2,000 (£10 bets) when in actual fact if you lost 100 points (£1,000) you would give up on it. Ask yourself the direct question and answer it to yourself honestly. If I lost £1,000 in the first week betting at £10 would I continue? If the answer to that question, quite understandably, is no then I’m afraid you never had a 200 point bank to start with and that is vital, again in my opinion, to make this work. I actually lost 120 points in one month, it is shown highlighted on the results Spreadsheet (fortunately it was only profit I was giving back but it still happened). I carried on because my bank was large enough to cope with that loss and got it all back and a lot, lot more subsequently.
Also on the spreadsheet, I think on the 23rd April this year, I lost 42 points, that’s £420 at £10 stakes. Could you do that and place 56 £10 bets the next day to lose a further £65. The day after that could you place 86 £10 bets (risking £860) to lose a further £123.50 and then still on the 4th day place 52 bets risking a further £520. I did, didn’t bother me one jot because I still had plenty left in a 200 point bank. These are tough questions and you have to be honest with yourself. Could you do it, if not with £10 stakes, 10p stakes, 50p stakes, £1 stakes?
To answer the main question I seem to be asked here is an email exchange from today (25/6/11). I hope it gives some insight into what I do and why I do it.
“Hello.
I quote : “Well, folks a more than acceptable second day, I made 21.6 points and I hope you were somewhere close.”
I made minus 1 point yesterday betting @ SP. Is it because there are so many people betting on your selections ? Should I take the current price at the time I receive the selections ?
Thanks.”
My reply:
Thanks for your email and I’m very glad that you contacted me so soon.
This method of mine has never been about betting at SP, it is about early betting at the best price you can achieve. Anyone can back a winner when the serious money has made it obvious that the horse is fancied. Unfortunately it’s then too late to make any profit, that’s all been taken. My aim is to spot the value horse before the serious money brings down the price significantly (usually in the half hour before the race starts). I hope you can see what I am getting at. I have been told a number of times that LOOKING FOR THE BEST PRICE IS TIME CONSUMING!!!. Here’s an email I sent out to someone yesterday who made that point.
Hello
Thanks very much for your email
I do take early prices with bookies and I take advantage of BOG when possible because I know in my gut that this maximises the profit. That’s not to say a profit couldn’t be achieved doing it another way but it would not be as much.
My view, for what it’s worth, is that even using Betfair it would be a good idea to place the bets at the earliest possible price rather than just before the off as many of my bets seem to be backed in. For example I’ve had horses at 14/1 in the morning start at 7/2 or thereabouts and win easily, so the difference can be as large as 10 points plus.
Let me also give some examples from 4 of today’s winning selections at Market Rasen
Red Skipper Backed @ 14/1 won @ 15/2
Muntami Backed @ 14/1 won @ 6/1
Must you go Backed @ 15/2 won @ 4/1
Osland Backed @ 9/2 won @ 3/1
Sadly BSP is not that far removed from industry SP these days so there would not have been a significant advantage in backing that way. I hope you can see the reason I don’t mind taking the time to get the best return I can when 4 winners such as the ones above return an extra 19.5 points (at £10 a point for me it’s well worth having).